Settled chemistry, confirmed by what got published
63 of 75 recipes
Chuck carries the most collagen and the most marbling here
Connective tissue converts to gelatin above about 160F, fast above 180F, and is done by 195-205F. Gelatin coats the fibres, and that coating is what reads as succulent.
In this corpus chuck averages a collagen index of
0.84 and a marbling
index of 0.72, both
composition read straight off the ingredients, not a fitted result.
Source.
Whether that number moves a real recipe is not the interesting
question here. Whether 75 different authors, writing for 47
different sites, converged on the same cut without coordinating is.
They did.
What to do: if a recipe doesn't name a cut, or
names one you don't recognize, chuck is the safe default. It's what
the field already reaches for.
The common, costly exception
3 recipes use round
Round is a roast-beef cut, and it's the expensive mistake
Chuck is the forgiving default cut (high collagen, high marbling); round is the usual cause of a dry pot roast because it's a roast-beef cut, not a braising cut (moderate collagen, very low marbling).
Round's own numbers here back the claim: a collagen
index of 0.67 against
chuck's 0.84, and a
marbling index of 0.39
against chuck's 0.72.
Less marbling means less fat basting the meat from the inside as it
cooks. Less collagen sets a lower ceiling on how much gelatin can ever
form, no matter how long the pot stays on the stove. It isn't a rare
or eccentric pick either. Round shows up in butcher cases labeled for
roasting, which is exactly how it ends up in a braise where it
doesn't belong.
What to do: if the roast in the recipe photo looks
leaner and darker red than what you'd expect from a fatty cut, check
the label before you buy. A pot roast recipe that names round instead
of chuck is the one to read the reviews on first.